Look for value in the underdog
The best baseball teams lose at least sixty games a year and the worst teams win close to that same number. The rest of the league falls somewhere in between. Consider that the more favorites you betting, the higher percentage of wins you will need to break even. Example, if your average bet is a –150 favorite you will need to hit 60% winners just to break even. At -170, that number increases to 63% and so on.
Now consider the opposite. If your average betting is a +120 underdog, your break-even percentage drops to approximately 45.5%. At +140, its down to just over 42% and the higher you go the lower the breakeven percentage. Keeping in mind that even the poorest baseball teams seldom win fewer than 37% of their games, it’s apparent that looking for opportunities to bet on underdogs is essential to profitable baseball wagering.
Set a limit for betting on favorites
While most successful baseball bettors look to play underdogs first, favorites can frequently present good value also. Often times, you will discover a top team playing upon the road like a minor favorite or any other situations will present themselves where small favorites are a very good play. To bet baseball successfully, you ought to implement a strict limit about how much you’ll lay on the favorite, say -150 or lower. When you establish your cut off for wagering favorites, never wager greater than that, whatever the circumstance or situation.
Don’t place too much stock in starting pitchers
A lot of sports handicappers place an excessive amount emphasis upon the starting pitcher. It’s understandable, in fact, because the bookmakers list the starting pitcher when setting the line for every game. In case you pay any focus on baseball, however, you’ll understand that the quality of starting pitching has reached a state of equality, otherwise mediocrity agen judi bola. Sure, You will find a small quantity of elite pitchers, but all others really certainly can be a cut below these few. As you’ll never get these guys anywhere near your favorite cut off point, don’t worry about them.
It is an obvious undeniable fact that baseball is really a bet on streaks, and nowhere is that this more evident compared to pitching. In case a starter is demonstrating particularly good or particularly bad recent form, it may not be compensated for inside the line and there might be value in playing on (or against ) the starter in question. Overall, however, starting pitching receives way an excessive amount emphasis when evaluating baseball given by a wagering standpoint.
Understand that baseball is a game of streaks
This is no secret, of course, but it’s something to be aware of when bet on baseball. No matter what else you find relevant about a game, you should think twice about bet against a team that has won three or more games in a row or on a team that has lost three or more games in a row. This may sound superstitious, but it is a valuable rule to follow. You will always be better off in the long run by not going against a winning or losing streak the majority of the time.
Home field advantage just doesn’t matter
Of major sports, there might be less advantage to playing in your own home in baseball compared to other. This really is especially true throughout the long regular season. Granted there will be teams that better in certain ballparks than others, but this really is more a function of the planning from the ballpark and also the personnel from the team than any home field advantage. Some parks are clearly pitcher’s parks or hitter’s parks, but it really works both ways – the opposing pitchers and hitters often have a similar advantage or disadvantage like the home team’s players. Furthermore, bad teams are frequently overvalued in your own home, which leads to good value upon the visitor. During the span of season, most teams will likely do better in your own home than upon the road however the higher prices you’ll need to pay will negate this fact sbobet. Most of the time, home field advantage shouldn’t become a consideration in handicapping a game.